Understanding incrementality: amplify your Meta Ads performance

Throughout my career managing paid media campaigns, attribution has been a persistent headache. For marketing directors, e-commerce strategists, and budget holders alike, attribution questions often spark endless debates. How can we confidently measure the true impact of our ads? Are we genuinely driving additional revenue, or would these purchases have happened anyway?

Meta recently introduced a significant update that promises clarity: incremental conversion reporting. I've spent some time with this feature, reviewed early data, and believe it could reshape the way we evaluate campaigns and allocate budgets.

Let me take you through the core concept, why it matters, and how you can leverage it for smarter marketing decisions.

What makes incremental conversions different?

In simple terms, incrementality measures the conversions that happened exclusively because your audience saw your ads; conversions that likely wouldn't have occurred otherwise.

Previously, marketers would run periodic "lift tests." These involved splitting audiences into a test group (who saw the ads) and a control group (who didn't), then measuring the difference in conversions. This approach, while effective, was time-intensive and required regular setup.

Now, Meta has simplified and expanded this reporting. Incremental conversion insights are directly available within Ads Manager, without the need to manually run lift tests. My experience indicates Meta is harnessing vast volumes of historical data and machine learning models to estimate your incremental results with strong accuracy.

Why this matters

On the surface, Meta may attribute hundreds or even thousands of conversions to your ads. But incrementality reporting often shows reality differs significantly. For example, one account I observed reported 481 total purchases from recent campaigns, yet only 171 were considered incremental. That's a big difference.

This gap represents conversions by people who would have purchased regardless. Interestingly, retargeting campaigns — typically boasting incredible ROAS — often yield surprisingly lower incremental value when scrutinised this way. You could find campaigns with flashy metrics to be the least incrementally effective.

How incremental reporting shifts your strategy

Understanding these nuances has profound implications. If you manage substantial paid media budgets, incremental data provides deeper transparency on your investment effectiveness. It highlights which campaigns truly attract new customers — essential for long-term sustainable growth — and which merely harvest sales you'd have won organically through brand loyalty or past marketing.

For example, during my analysis of a Meta e-commerce campaign, one seemingly high-performing campaign registered a ROAS of over 10x. However, incremental data disclosed a real incremental ROAS closer to 3x.

Simultaneously, a campaign initially appearing modest in standard metrics proved significantly more incrementally efficient, with lower acquisition costs and substantially higher true ROAS. Armed with this insight, we refocused budgets toward campaigns genuinely driving new customer sales, immediately improving overall growth potential.

Can we trust Meta's figures, considering the well-known tendency of ad platforms to over-attribute? Despite my initial skepticism, I'm cautiously optimistic

Going further, incremental data can help validate other areas of your marketing mix. A large gap between your total conversions and incremental conversions may indicate robust brand strength from top-of-funnel campaigns, PR efforts, or email marketing effectiveness. Conversely, tight incremental efficiency suggests stronger reliance on paid channels to generate actions, highlighting potential gaps in your organic or brand marketing efforts.

Although Meta provides this data mainly for conversion-focused campaigns today, careful interpretation still gives actionable insights about your broader brand-building strategies.

How reliable is the data?

Can we trust Meta's figures, considering the well-known tendency of ad platforms to over-attribute? Despite my initial skepticism, I'm cautiously optimistic. In tests I've reviewed, Meta hasn't shied away from demonstrating cases of lower incremental benefit—even admitting less than 40% of attributed sales came directly from ads.

This unusual honesty implies commitment to credibility, making me comfortable enough to treat incremental conversion reporting as a valuable input. Of course, no single metric should guide all decision-making; consider incremental results as an essential, yet complementary, perspective rather than an authoritative measure on its own.

Planning ahead

Incrementality signals a permanent shift in how we manage online advertising campaigns. Meta is already incorporating incremental optimisations directly into their ad setup, helping businesses proactively target only conversions highly likely to be incremental. Early feedback suggests these incremental conversion-focused optimisations result in measurable, significant efficiency gains — Meta reported early experiments have shown around 50-60% improvements in ROAS.

I recommend adopting incremental evaluations proactively in your marketing efforts now, especially if you operate an e-commerce brand heavily dependent on digital ads. Get familiar with incremental metrics sooner rather than later. Run controlled tests to explore the impact when shifting ad spend toward incremental maximisation. Even minor initial adjustments can quickly yield noticeable competitive marketing advantage.

Incrementality empowers smarter decision making

For marketers, clarity brings confidence. Incrementality reporting, if leveraged wisely, clarifies the true business impacts of your digital ad spend across paid media channels. It uncovers the true incremental value of ads, highlighting what's worth investing in and what campaigns or audiences you could scale back.

As this new reporting reaches broader availability, investing effort to understand incremental insights will become standard practice for high-performing marketing teams. My team and I are already adapting tactics based on incremental data insights, and if you haven't yet explored incrementality, now is the ideal time.

Curious about incrementality or how these insights can enhance your digital campaigns? Let's discuss how incremental reporting could provide valuable transparency and greater growth for your business.